Paul Goodwin – Decision Analysis for Management Judgment

Paul Goodwin – Decision Analysis for Management Judgment

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Description

Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. This latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field. Table of Contents Foreword Lawrence D. Phillips vii Preface ix Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives 15 Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART 33 Chapter 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: alternatives to SMART 65 Chapter 5 Introduction to probability 95 Chapter 6 Decision making under uncertainty 117 Chapter 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams 161 Chapter 8 Applying simulation to decision problems 187 Chapter 9 Revising judgments in the light of new information 221 Chapter 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment 245 Chapter 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities 275 Chapter 12 Risk and uncertainty management 297 Chapter 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals 309 Chapter 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems 337 Chapter 15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia 361 Chapter 16 Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty 387 Chapter 17 Combining scenario planning with decision analysis 423 Chapter 18 Alternative decision-support systems and conclusions 437 Suggested answers to selected questions 469 Index 475   Author Information Paul Goodwin is Professor of Management Science at the School of Management, University of Bath. He is Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. George Wright is a Professor at Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde. He is the Editor of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making and anAssociate Editor of both Decision Support Systems and the International Journal of Forecasting. The Wiley Advantage

·         Presents and explains decision analysis methods without using mathematical notation and tools that are beyond the scope of most of the book’s target audience – practicing managers and business students·          Rigorous in its presentation of methods – the material is covered in sufficient depth to allow readers to apply methods appropriately and with full knowledge of their rationale, assumptions and limitations.·         Provides a broad coverage of decision analysis methods Features topics that are rarely, if ever, found in other textbooks, including explanations of special methods that are designed to handle resource allocation and negotiation problems and a demonstration of how decision analysis can be used in tandem with scenario planning in strategic decision making.