Investor Sentiment, Market Timing and Futures Returns by Changyun Wang
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Forex Trading – Foreign Exchange Course
You want to learn about Forex?
Foreign exchange, or forex, is the conversion of one country’s currency into another.
In a free economy, a country’s currency is valued according to the laws of supply and demand.
In other words, a currency’s value can be pegged to another country’s currency, such as the U.S. dollar, or even to a basket of currencies.
A country’s currency value may also be set by the country’s government.
However, most countries float their currencies freely against those of other countries, which keeps them in constant fluctuation.
This study examines whether actual trader position-based sentiment index is useful for predicting returns in the S&P 500 index futures market. The results show that large speculator sentiment is a price continuation indicator, whereas large hedger sentiment is a contrary indicator. Small trader sentiment hardly forecasts future market movements. Moreover, extreme large trader sentiments and the combination of extreme large trader sentiments tend to provide more reliable forecasts. These findings suggest that large speculators possess superior timing ability in the market.
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